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to take the delayed effect of balance sheet reduction conducted earlier into its consideration of rate cuts. The current phase-out of balanc
上海会所e sheet reduction already has some easing effect, and only after the balance sheet reduction ends in September, can its impact become clearer.
By incorporating that impact into consideration, the Fed can draw up a better rate cut plan that maximizes effects of the policy mix.上海会所
Thirdly, the market may have overestimated how much the Fed will cut the rates. There may be no more than three rate cuts by the end of 2020.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard – the major advocate of this
round of rate cut – has suggested the use of the modern-day Taylor rule, which fairly well explains th上海会所
e Fed’s interest rate decisions. Even based on this model adopted by dovish Fed officials, we found that the degree of rate cuts may be weaker than m
上海会所arket expectation for quite some time going forward: at most one cut by the end of this year and likely two or three cuts by the end of 2020.
By contrast, before the June FOMC meeting, the market expected a higher-than-85-percent chance of more than one rate cut by the
end of this year as well as an about 60-percent chance of more than three cuts by the end of 2020, according to Bloomberg data.上海会所品茶微信
In conclusion, we think as economic downside pressure gradually emerges, the Fed will have to kick off the rate cut cycle. But the rate cut si上海会所品茶微信
gnal, timing and degree may not measure up to the market expectation. Therefore, two future developments appear possible:
First, investor sentiment can reverse drastically if the Fed’s action fails to meet market expec上海会所品茶微信
tation. Considering the market has fully priced in the unrealistic expectation of rate cuts sinc
e early June, any reversal of expectation can lead to short-term fluctuations of key price signals such as the US Treasury yield cu
rve, the US Dollar Index, and the gold price, which may pose extensive spillover shocks to asset portfolios.
Second, the long-term trend of rate cuts will continue even if the market expectation reverses. In the long
run, the Fed is expected to proceed with rate cuts in a fairly slow and smooth way. This will enlarge the monetary policy room of ot
her major economies and expedite the shift toward an easing global monetary environment, which may in turn lift the sen
timent of global stock markets and ease any currency risk of emerging markets gradually.
Cheng Shi is the managing director, head of research and chief economist of ICBC Interna
tional Holdings Ltd.Qian Zhijun is a senior economist of ICBC International Holdings Ltd.
for insurance companies in the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta region, with transportation as a top priority.
上海夜网女神会所”Insurance capital can help the government to boost domestic consumption. A co
mprehensive transportation network connecting railway, subway, ports and even airports has上海夜网
been a longstanding goal of many cities in this area. This is where insurers can play a big role,” he said.
Elderly care is another sector where insurance companies can find big opportunities, said Ko
ng. In early June, CPIC opened an elderly care community in Hangzhou, and is about to launch a new one in Nanjing.上海夜网女神会所
“The idea is to let the senior citizens in Shanghai enjoy quality elderly care services in other parts of the Yangtze River Delta region. Mor
e room in Shanghai can thus be given to ambitious young entrepreneurs to set up their own businesses,” he said.
The integration of risk prevention schemes for peasants in the Y
angtze River Delta region is one more area where insurers can focus on, said Kong.上海夜网
Peasants’ income can be largely increased via products such
as cost insurance, yield insurance, income insurance or one-stop insurance service.
He Haifeng, director of the Institute of Financial Policy, which is a part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the int上海夜网女神会所
egrated development of the delta region presents many latent challenges. So, more efforts should be made to r
eform finance and tax areas, to reduce fees in various fields, and improve the overall business environment.
Work on a new film based on a script by novelist Liu Cixin, the first Asian ever to win a global sci-fi literature’s top honor Hugo Award, has just begun.上海夜网女神会所
The movie called Mo Ri Zheng Jiu (The Rescue on the Last Day) will star award-winning Hong Kong actor Nick Cheung Ka-f
ai and veteran actor Hu Jun, best known for the first Sino-Kazakh coproduction The Composer.
Director Shen Yue says that Liu wrote the script before he started to write The Three-Bod
y Problem, which won the Hugo Award for Best Novel in August 2015. The book was first published in 2006.
Zhu Jin, the curator of Beijing Planetarium, will be the film’s chief science consultant.
e development of the Internet Plus model. This will help foster new drivers of g
rowth, deliver better services, boost consumption and expand employment,” Li said.
A 52-year-old man from Southwest China’s Sichuan province will sit f
or the national college entrance examination, or gaokao, on Friday for the 23rd time.
Liang Shi, who was born in 1967 in Wengong township, Rensh
ou county, Sichuan province, took the gaokao for the
first time in 1983 and also in the two following years, as his teacher parents insisted.
Liang, the fourth child in his family, said he realized his parents wi
shed their five children would study in university, but n
ne of them did. The family’s situation could not support his further studies and Liang started to work.
Wang Aiqin, one of Li’s granddaughters, said that Li has four sons who
take care of her in rotation every month, along wi
th her three daughters. Li can remember all her family members but is slightly deaf.
Li enjoys good relationships with her neighbors, and is healthy, having used to be a farm worker.
She lives a routine life and does regular exercise, while her diet
consists mainly of porridge, steamed buns and vegetables, Wang said.
“She likes to watch some TV programs of traditional operas, and we bought her a TV set,” Wang said.
success of winning the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2012, Zhang Qinghua, professor at Beijing Normal University, believes that Mo’s way of dealing with this h
as been to make a return to his hometown, a village in Gaomi, Shandong province, both in reality and spiritually.
Mo didn’t publish any new work in the five years following the award, when in 2017 he
released several short stories, poems and theater works, mainly reminiscing about his hometown.
Unlike Mo’s former novels, Peking University professor Chen Xiaoming notes th
at his new works are more reserved, realistic stylistically and employ more simple language. Literary cri
tic Li Jingze is impressed that Mo has remained acutely sensitive to the realities of urban and rural life.